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Are we back in the uptrend of the bull market - or are we still in a deep correction?

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Are we back in the uptrend of the bull market - or are we still in a deep correction?

In November 2025, the crypto markets are experiencing a phase that simultaneously fascinates and unsettles many investors. After months of dynamic rises, new all-time highs for various Coins and a record launch of institutional products such as the Spot Bitcoin ETFs was followed by an equally severe correction. Bitcoin temporarily fell below the USD 82,000 mark, Ethereum lost double digits within a few days and overleveraged positions were liquidated in the billions. At the same time, total market capitalization remains close to the important USD 3 trillion mark - a level that has historically been reached almost exclusively during active bull phases. It is precisely this mixture of a sharp decline and yet high valuation levels that is currently causing many investors to ask themselves the same question: Are we already in a bull market - or is this all just a mirage of a major trend reversal?

What makes the situation so special is that the classic indicators are currently providing contradictory signals. On the one hand, there are record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, a significant change in market sentiment and short-term macro concerns. On the other hand, long-term models, on-chain data and historical comparisons show that such sharp setbacks are typical for the mid to late phases of a bull cycle - especially when the market was previously overheated. Traders, analysts and institutional investors are therefore intensively debating whether we are experiencing a healthy shakeout or whether the bull market has already peaked.

For private investors, this makes the situation more complex than usual: while some market participants see the current weak phase as an opportunity to enter the market, others are warning of possible further price declines. This is precisely why it is now more important than ever to properly classify the current data, trends and sentiment indicators. In this article, we analyze the latest facts on prices, macro trends, ETF flows and on-chain data - and answer the central question that the entire crypto world is asking itself: Have we really already entered the bull market, or is the market deceiving us once again?

Felix Rieger – Founder and Author, KryptoZukunft
About the author
Felix Rieger Verified
Founder & Lead Author · KryptoZukunft.com · Rheinmünster, Germany · since 2021
Since 2021, I've personally tested crypto exchanges, analyzed markets, and explained complex topics in an understandable way – Clear, honest, no hype. As the founder of KryptoZukunft.com, I have about 12 Stock Exchanges Tested, more than 100 journal articles written and help thousands of readers daily, to safely get into cryptocurrency. Not a financial advisor—but someone who has already made the mistakes and learned from them.
Active since 2021 12+ stock exchanges tested 📰 100+ Articles Rheinmünster, Germany ✅ Verified Content
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2nd market overview November 2025: prices, market capitalization & dominance

In November 2025, the crypto market is more divided than ever before. On the one hand, there was a massive setback that temporarily pushed Bitcoin below USD 82,000 and was even more severe for many altcoins. On the other hand, the overall market capitalization remains stable at around 3 trillion US dollars - a value that historically clearly speaks for active bull phases. It is precisely these contradictory signals that make the current market analysis so exciting: on the one hand, the figures show weakness, but on the other hand, the fundamental basis remains strong.

Bitcoin is trading in a wide range between USD 82,000 and USD 90,000 following the recent correction and has thus lost around a third of its high for the year. Despite the decline, the market dominance of the BTC at about 57 %, which indicates that large capital remains primarily in Bitcoin - a typical feature in phases of uncertainty. Ethereum is trading stably above USD 2,700, but has also been unable to decouple itself from the broader market pressure. However, the recent intensified discussions surrounding the upcoming ETH upgrade have given the second-largest cryptocurrency an additional bullish sentiment.

With the Altcoins the picture is mixed: While large projects with genuine adoption have remained comparatively stable, highly speculative tokens have been downright „unwound“. The Altcoin Season Index continues to point clearly in the direction of „Bitcoin season“, which means that altcoins are currently hardly receiving any capital inflows. Such phases are typical of two situations: Either the market is still in an unstable correction, or it is about to enter the next impulsive upward phase.

The view of the Liquidity side reinforces the picture of uncertainty. Capital inflows into spot ETFs have recently declined, while trading volumes on the centralized exchanges are rising again - albeit due to volatility rather than new investors. Combined with a visible increase in leveraged position liquidations, this shows a market that is reorganizing and adjusting. It is precisely this mixture of a strong fundamental basis and short-term nervousness that makes it clear that the crypto market is at a crucial point where the next few weeks could determine the direction of the cycle going forward.

3 ETF flows: Why institutional money is currently setting the trend

Few factors are currently influencing the price performance of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market as strongly as capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. While these products acted as a real growth engine in the first few months after their launch and recorded massive inflows, the picture changed noticeably in November 2025. Instead of fresh capital, significant Drains, especially from large funds such as the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust and the Fidelity Wise Origin ETF. These developments have put the market under severe pressure and are considered to be one of the main triggers for the recent price declines.

Institutional investors are reacting sensitively to the macroeconomic environment. Increasing risk aversion, global uncertainties and short-term profit-taking have led to several billion US dollars flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs in the last few weeks alone. This is hugely significant for the market: in contrast to retail investors, institutions move huge volumes with just a few large transactions. As a result, ETF flow trends act like an accelerator - in an uptrend they provide additional liquidity, in a downtrend they increase the selling momentum.

Particular attention is currently being paid to the negative net flow, which at times marked the sharpest decline since the products were introduced. Such a signal indicates that major market participants are reducing risk in the short term, possibly to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties or to take profits from the last sharp rise. Historically, however, such phases rarely last. Previous cycles have already shown that strong periods of outflow often initiate a market shakeout, which subsequently creates space for more sustained upward movements.

For investors, this means that ETF flows are currently one of the most precise early indicators of market sentiment and trend direction. As long as institutional capital remains defensive, the market will also find it difficult to form clear upward signals again. However, if flows turn positive again, this could be a strong sign that the overarching bull cycle is still intact and the correction phase is coming to an end.

4. on-chain signals: bull market, correction or end of cycle?

While price movements are often distorted in the short term On-chain data a much deeper insight into the actual market structure. This is precisely why they are considered one of the most reliable indicators for assessing whether we are in a continuing bull market, a temporary correction or already in the late cycle phase. The current on-chain signals paint a remarkably multi-layered picture - one that is neither clearly bullish nor clearly bearish, but rather a Transition phase suggests.

A key factor is the development between Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-term holders (STH). While short-term investors are selling at an above-average rate due to the sharp correction, long-term investors remain stable. As a result, the ratio between the two groups is slipping into an area that has historically often preceded major trend decisions. Long-term hodlers continue to hold their coins predominantly at a profit, which is an indication of structural strength - at the same time, more and more STH positions are being capitulated, which is typical of market adjustments in a bull cycle.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) provides exciting clues. Although Bitcoin and many Altcoins have fallen sharply, the MVRV is still in a zone that is more consistent with bullish mid-cycle corrections than with final blow-off tops. This area indicates that the majority of investors are under pressure, but not in a phase of massive overvaluation, as would be usual in bubble end phases. At the same time, we see the Realized price and with the Realized losses clear pattern of a market shakeout: Losses are realized, leverage is reduced and weak hands are forced out of the market.

A comparison with previous cycles also shows a striking parallel. The current correction is very similar to the 2017 and 2021 phases, in which the market retreated after overheating before entering the final upward movement. More importantly, the market is still significantly above the cyclical averages, that are reached in classic bear markets. This tends to argue against a fully formed end to the cycle.

Overall, the on-chain data delivers three clear messages: Firstly, structural strength is still present, even if short-term signals fluctuate. Secondly, the patterns show a shakeout, as typically happens before new upward movements. And thirdly, there is still no evidence of typical historical cycle-end behavior. The on-chain perspective thus reinforces the picture of a market that has not yet made up its mind - but which still contains important building blocks of an intact bull cycle.

5. macro situation 2025: Why interest rates, inflation & geopolitics determine the trend

The overarching market dynamics in the crypto sector in 2025 can hardly be understood without taking the global economic environment into account. While most investors look at price charts, on-chain analysis and ETF flows, it is primarily the Macro factors, that will determine whether the market returns to a sustainable upward trend or remains in a correction for longer. Developments relating to interest rates, inflation, geopolitical risks and liquidity play a key role in determining how much capital flows into high-risk investments such as Bitcoin, Ethereum or altcoins.

Particularly relevant here is the Monetary policy orientation of the central banks. After several years of high interest rates, both the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank have been signaling a possible turnaround for 2026 for months. Many market observers assume that the first interest rate cut will not take place until next year, but expectations alone are enough to influence risk appetite. In phases in which interest rate cuts are on the horizon, institutional investors tend to invest more heavily in growth assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, as long as there is no clear decision on the timing of the easing, the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic surprises.

Added to this is the Inflation dynamics, which is still above the long-term targets worldwide. The US in particular continues to struggle with higher service prices, which is causing the Fed to act cautiously. Higher inflation figures or an unexpected rise in commodity prices could cause renewed uncertainty at any time and pull capital out of the crypto sector. At the same time, Bitcoin and other digital assets are increasingly benefiting from their perception as an „inflation-resistant“ or „hard“ asset - a role that institutional investors in particular are increasingly considering.

Another factor is the Geopolitics. Trade conflicts, election years, regional tensions and new regulatory initiatives are influencing the Volatility strong in the short and medium term. While geopolitical uncertainties often lead to risk aversion in the short term, they strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin as an independent, global store of value in the long term. The increasing Tokenization of real-world assets and the growing institutional infrastructure in the crypto sector further underpin this narrative.

After all, the global Liquidity play a decisive role. In 2025, we are experiencing a phase in which capital flows fluctuate strongly between different risk assets. Tech stocks are attracting huge amounts of institutional capital, while the crypto market is cooling off after the sharp rise in the spring and summer. As soon as the liquidity pressure eases - be it through positive macro data, stabilization of ETF flows or falling yields - the crypto market could enter a phase of increased capital inflows again.

In summary, the macro situation shows that the bull market is by no means over, but it is currently being held back by external factors. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether the momentum will turn again - and whether the crypto markets will return to a strong upward trend.

6 The bull market case: Why we could still be in an uptrend despite the crash

Despite the sharp correction, there are numerous fundamental, cyclical and structural factors that suggest that we are still on the right track. in the middle of an overarching bull market are located. Many of these signals are overlooked in the public debate because short-term panic and price volatility obscure the view. But a look beneath the surface shows: The characteristics of an intact bull cycle are clearly recognizable.

1. cycle logic & halving structure clearly speak in favor of an active bull run
Historically, not a single Bitcoin bull market has reached its final high just a few months after the halving. The 2024 halving did not take full effect until spring 2025 - exactly the period in which Bitcoin marked its last all-time highs. In all previous cycles, the first parabolic phase was always followed by a significant mid-cycle correction. The current price behavior corresponds exactly to this pattern: sharp setback after overheating, followed by revaluation.

2. the market continues to trade clearly above bear market levels
Bitcoin remains stable well above previous, important long-term price levels. The total market capitalization is around 3 trillion US dollars - a level that has historically only been reached in active bull markets. A market in bear mode would typically trade 40-60 % below these levels. Ethereum also remains well above its cyclical lows, indicating structural strength.

3. fundamental adoption continues to rise - regardless of price
A real bull market only ends when the use of technology stagnates. Exactly the opposite is currently happening:

  • Ethereum is working on the biggest upgrade since „The Merge“
  • Tokenization of real-world assets is growing exponentially
  • Institutional custodians and infrastructure providers expand their capacities
  • Layer 2 networks such as Base, zkSync and Arbitrum continue to see record activity

These developments are more indicative of the early to middle stages of a cyclical upswing, not the final stage.

4. the current correction is typical of the strongest bull markets of the past
The parallels to 2017, 2013 and 2021 are unmistakable: in all three cases, there were massive setbacks of 25-45 % before the markets entered the final upward phase. Back then, too, over-leveraged positions were liquidated, ETF-like products experienced strong capital outflows and sentiment abruptly turned from „euphoria“ to „fear“. The current pattern fits seamlessly into this history.

5. on-chain data shows: The strong hands do not sell
While traders and short-term investors are capitulating and selling, long-term hodlers and institutional custodians remain stably invested. These cohorts are traditionally the ones who carry bull markets. Only when they start to sell off large quantities is an end to the cycle realistic - but the exact opposite is currently happening.

6. capital does not flow out of the crypto market, but is only reallocated
Although spot ETFs are experiencing outflows, the total volume in the market remains high. A lot of capital is currently moving back to exchanges, in DeFi-protocols or in stable assets such as USDT/USDC, to wait for new opportunities. This indicates a tactical reorientation rather than a complete risk aversion.

In summary, the „bull market case“ shows that the correction may seem severe, but fundamentally there is much to suggest that we are still in an intact upward trend. The current market phase could therefore not so much represent the end of the bull market - but rather one of the typical corrections that make the next big upward push possible.

7 The bear case: Why we could already be in the late phase of the bull market

As convincing as the arguments for a continued intact bull market are, there are equally strong indications that we are already in the Late phase of the current cycle. If you want to realistically assess the risks, you should not ignore these bearish signals but consciously incorporate them into your strategy.

1. ETF outflows as a possible top signal
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were the main driver of the upward trend - and that is precisely why their current weakness is so explosive. For weeks, outflows clearly outweighed inflows. Institutional investors are withdrawing capital, realizing profits and reducing risk. This is exactly what happens in classic bull market end phases: the big players use high valuations to gradually reduce positions while the retail market is still trying to „buy the dip“. If this trend continues, the ETF boom could, in retrospect, be seen as a Top indicator of the cycle.

2. overheating of altcoins & meme coins
A typical warning signal at the end of a bull market is massive speculation in high-risk segments: Meme coins, microcaps, illiquid tokens. This is exactly what we saw in 2025. Many of these projects gained several hundred percent in a short space of time - without any fundamental data, without any benefit, purely on the basis of hype. In the subsequent correction, it was precisely these coins that experienced an above-average slump. The pattern is familiar:

  • Bitcoin & major blue chips rise first
  • This is followed by midcaps and sector hypes (AI coins, DeFi, gaming, etc.)
  • Finally, meme coins and pure speculative tokens explode - often the last stage before a larger, longer-lasting cool-down.

3. cycle models indicate a late phase
Various historical models that analyze the duration and intensity of previous cycles suggest that we are moving in the right direction. very close in time to typical bull market peaks move. Many of these models work with metrics such as:

  • Time since last halving
  • Percentage performance from low to high
  • Ratio of realized cap to market cap
    In several of these calculations, we are in a zone that was only reached shortly before or after the absolute top in past cycles. This does not mean that a new bear market will necessarily start immediately - but the Risk-reward ratio is clearly shifting to the disadvantage of new, ill-considered entries.

4. macro risks can stall the bull cycle
The monetary policy situation is fragile. Interest rates are still high, inflation is not fully under control and the prospect of interest rate cuts is there - but not guaranteed. Negative surprises in inflation data, labor market figures or geopolitical developments could quickly lead to a massive sell-off of risk assets. In such a situation, crypto-assets, which have been performing strongly anyway, would be hit particularly hard. If ETF flows remain negative at the same time, a „normal“ correction can easily turn into a longer downward phase become.

5. change in sentiment: from euphoria to structural mistrust
In the months leading up to the correction, there was a sense of euphoria in some places that was very reminiscent of 2017 and 2021: social media was full of extremely optimistic price targets, many new entrants came into the market shortly before the highs, and the classic FOMO („Fear of Missing Out“) reached new heights. After the crash, this sentiment turned into the opposite - panic, frustration, resignation. Such psychological patterns are typical for cycle peaks:

  • Extreme euphoria → sharp crash → lasting uncertainty.
    If this uncertainty does not lead to a quick recovery but to a longer phase of mistrust, this is more likely to indicate a End of cycle than for a brief interim correction.

6. technical structure: broken trend lines & weak rebounds
There are also warning signals from a technical chart perspective. Important upward trend lines have been broken, multiple support zones have fallen without any significant resistance and the rebounds have so far been weak and unconvincing. Instead of vigorously targeting new highs, the market is struggling to recapture lost levels. In the past, this has often been a sign that smart money is already on the sell side and uses every recovery to reduce further positions.

7 What the bear case means for investors
Anyone who takes the bearish perspective seriously will come to a clear conclusion:

  • The Upside potential in the current cycle could be limited.
  • The Downside risk in the event of renewed macro shocks, further ETF outflows or regulatory surprises is real.

This does not mean that a multi-year bear market must start immediately - but it does mean that investors are no longer in the „simple phase“ of a bull run in which „everything rises“. Instead, we may be in a Late phase, in which risk management, partial profit-taking and a close look at fundamentals are more important than blind euphoria.

Precisely because the bearish arguments are so plausible, the next step is crucial: in the following section we look at the neutral view In other words, the possibility that we are neither in a clear bull nor a clear bear market, but in a transition zone in which the next major trend is still forming.

8. the neutral view: transition phase instead of a clear bull or bear market

Between the clearly bullish and clearly bearish scenarios, there is a third, often more realistic perspective: in 2025, we are neither in a classic bull market in which „everything just goes up“, nor in a fully formed bear market, but in a Transition phase, in which the next major trend is only just emerging. This view takes into account the fact that markets do not function in black and white, but often take longer to develop. Sideways and redistribution phases before a new, clear trend is established.

Typical for such transition phases is the combination of high volatility, strong changes in direction and contradictory signals:

  • Fundamentally, crypto remains strong due to adoption, regulation and infrastructure development.
  • In the short term, however, uncertainty, liquidity bottlenecks, ETF outflows and macroeconomic question marks dominate.
    As a result, the market oscillates in a wide range without really breaking out - neither clearly upwards nor sustainably downwards. For many investors, this feels frustrating because there is no clear direction and classic „buy the dip“ or „sell the rally“ strategies no longer work reliably.

Another characteristic of this intermediate phase is the Adjustment of leverage and speculation. In the months leading up to the correction, many traders traded with high leverage, meme coins and microcaps were massively inflated and social media sentiment was extremely euphoric. The current market phase serves as a countermovement to this: Over-leveraged positions are being liquidated, overpriced assets are falling significantly more than the market as a whole, and the focus is slowly shifting back from pure hype projects to real fundamentals. It is precisely this redistribution from „weak hands“ to long-term investors that is often the basis on which the next real upward trend is built.

Also from the perspective of Technology and on-chain data The neutral interpretation fits: important long-term support zones have held so far, while short-term trend lines have been broken. Long-term holders are hardly selling, while short-term speculators are selling massively. This suggests neither a fully intact bull market nor a fully-fledged bear market, but rather a market structure in which Smart Money repositioned, while retail investors react emotionally.

For private investors, this neutral view means that the market is currently Neither a clear buy nor a clear sell area, but a zone in which strategy, time horizon and risk profile are more important than simple labels such as „bull run“ or „bear market“. Those who take a long-term view and select high-quality projects can use this transitional phase to gradually build up or reallocate positions. Short-term traders, on the other hand, should accept that the environment has become more difficult and that clear trends are rarer.

The neutral perspective thus provides an important balance between exaggerated euphoria and exaggerated pessimism: We are in a phase of decision-making, The next few months - ETF flows, macro data, regulation and technological advances - will determine whether we return to a powerful uptrend in the bull market or gradually slide into a prolonged cool-down.

9 Conclusion: Are we in a bull market - yes or no? A clear classification for investors

After analyzing all the data, indicators and market signals, the seemingly simple question - „Are we back in the uptrend of the bull market or are we still in a correction?“ - cannot be answered with a single word. But one thing is clear: the crypto market in 2025 is more complex than in previous cycles, and that is precisely why a differentiated answer necessary.

1. yes: The overarching bull cycle remains intact.
Structurally, there are many indications that we are still within a long-term upward trend.

  • Total market capitalization remains in the range of historical bull market levels.
  • On-chain data shows stable, non-selling long-term holders.
  • Adoption, infrastructure, institutional interest and technological development are stronger than ever before.
    In the past, these factors were reliable signals that a cycle was about to start. not yet was completed.

2. no: we are not in „clear“ bull market mode.
The easy part of a bull run - the phase in which „everything rises“ - is over for the time being.

  • ETF outflows weigh on the market structure.
  • Altcoins and meme coins were sold off heavily.
  • Macro factors create uncertainty instead of optimism.
    We are therefore not in the euphoric phase of a bull market, but in an intermediate phase that feels like a mixture of correction and sideways market.

3. the most likely answer is somewhere in between:
👉 We are in a transition zone between correction and bull market continuation.

The following points in particular speak in favor of this:

  • Too many bullish fundamentals for a real bear market.
  • Too many bearish warning signals for a clear, unchecked upward trend.
  • The market structure is strongly reminiscent of mid-cycle adjustments in earlier bull markets.
  • Smart money is cautious, but not panicky.
  • There is a retail panic, but no structural collapse.

The coming weeks and months will be decisive. The following developments will determine which way the market actually turns:

  • Are ETF flows stabilizing - or will further outflows continue?
  • Will the Fed start cutting interest rates in 2026 as expected?
  • Will Ethereum's big 2025 upgrade come as planned and boost market confidence?
  • Is a new rotation of capital into altcoins and quality projects starting?
  • Is Bitcoin breaking above important trend lines again?

Depending on how these factors develop, the market could either enter a new, strong bullish phase - or slide into a longer, nerve-racking sideways or downward movement.

In short:

  • In the long term: Bull market intact.
  • In the short term: Correction phase with an open outcome.
  • Superordinate: We are at a turning point, not at the end.

For investors, this means that strategy, time frame and risk management are now more important than pure price movements. Those investing for the long term should remain calm. Those who trade in the short term must remain flexible and responsive.

10. FAQ - The most important questions about the current crypto market in 2025

1. are we in a bull market in 2025 or not?

In short: Structurally yes, emotionally no. The long-term data (adoption, market capitalization, on-chain signals) suggest that we are still in an overarching bull cycle. In the short term, however, we are in a correction and transition phase in which ETF outflows, macro concerns and unsettled investors are setting the tone. It is therefore not a clear „everything is rising“ bull market, but a complex intermediate phase in the larger uptrend.

2. why do prices feel so bearish despite the bull cycle?

Because corrections of 25-40 % are also completely normal in bull markets - but are subjective like a crash feel. Many investors got in close to the high and are now seeing deep book losses. At the same time, media reports and social media are reinforcing the negative sentiment. The result: although the structure remains bullish, fear and uncertainty dominate in the short term.

3. how can I tell whether we are still „only“ in a correction?

Typical indications of a correction in a bull market are:

  • Long-term supports are still holding.
  • Long-term hodlers rarely sell.
  • Overall market capitalization remains at a high level.
    Only when important price zones break over a longer period of time, on-chain data shows structural weakness and interest in crypto as a whole collapses massively does the probability increase that a correction will turn into a real bear market.

4. can Bitcoin still reach new all-time highs after this correction?

Yes, this is still possible - but not guaranteed. Historically, Bitcoin has several times after hard mid-cycle corrections new all-time highs. Decisive factors are ETF flows, the macro environment (interest rates, inflation), the mood of major investors and the question of whether new waves of capital will enter the market. However, a sustainable new high requires more than just a short squeeze - namely genuine, fresh demand.

5 How important are spot Bitcoin ETFs for the ongoing bull market?

Extremely important. Spot ETFs are the gateway through which institutional capital comes into the market. Positive net inflows act as additional fuel in the bull market, while strong outflows act as a brake. As long as ETFs are losing net capital, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to return to a clear uptrend in the long term. If the flows turn positive again, this would be a strong bullish signal.

6 Are altcoins currently riskier than Bitcoin?

Yes, as a rule they do. In uncertain market phases, capital flows first from the riskiest assetsMeme coins, microcaps and illiquid tokens. Bitcoin and some established large-cap altcoins are usually more stable, but still lose significantly. Anyone investing in altcoins should be aware of the higher risk, pay attention to fundamental data and not blindly chase every recovery.

7. is now a good time to „buy the dip“?

This depends heavily on your Time horizon and risk profile off. Long-term investors who have a multi-year cycle in mind can often use corrections to build up positions over longer periods. Short-term traders, on the other hand, run the risk of buying into high volatility and „fakes“ during such phases. Important: No all-in, but staggered entries and clear risk management.

8 How important is the macro environment for Bitcoin and crypto?

Very important. Interest rates, inflation, liquidity and geopolitical risks determine how much capital flows into risk assets in the first place. Rising interest rates and uncertainty are mostly headwinds for crypto, while expected interest rate cuts and strong liquidity are bullish. Although Bitcoin is increasingly developing as a „digital hard asset“ in the long term, it is still strongly linked to global risk appetite in the short term.

9 Why do meme coins collapse so sharply during corrections?

Because meme coins are used almost exclusively by Speculation and hype live. When sentiment changes and investors reduce risk, these projects are the first to be sold. There is a lack of real use, fundamental data and long-term investors. This is why meme coins often drop 70, 80 or 90 % during crash phases - significantly more than Bitcoin or major altcoins.

10 What role do long-term hodlers play in this cycle?

Long-term hodlers are the Backbone of a bull market. As long as this group does not sell its coins on a large scale, supply will remain tight. Data currently shows that this cohort tends to hold rather than sell - a sign of structural strength. Only when they also start to systematically realize profits will the risk of a real end to the cycle increase significantly.

11. should I get out of the market completely now or just hold?

A blanket „Get out!“ or „HODL!“ would be dubious. It makes more sense to Individual strategy:

  • Anyone who is heavily overleveraged or overinvested should reduce risk.
  • If you believe in crypto in the long term and have solid allocations, you can sit out corrections or buy selectively.
  • A mixture of partial profit-taking at highs and gradual purchases in phases of weakness has proven its worth historically.

12 How can I prepare for both scenarios - further growth and possible prolonged weakness?

By setting up your portfolio in such a way that you survive in both directions:

  • No over-leveraging, no all-in on a coin.
  • Diversification between Bitcoin, selected altcoins and stablecoins.
  • Clear rules on when to take profits and when to limit losses.
  • A time horizon that is long enough to withstand corrections.
    This means you don't need to know the exact label „bull market“ or „bear market“, but can work with probabilities and react flexibly.

Source list - Current data, prices, ETF flows & market reports

Crypto news & market reports

  1. CoinTelegraph - Market analyses
  2. BTC-Echo - German Crypto News
  3. Decrypt - International crypto news service
  4. CryptoSlate - Market updates & research

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Last Updated: - This article is regularly checked for up-to-dateness.

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